This article tells the story of a hedge fund manager named Nassim Taleb and his defiance of the norm. In a lot of ways his principles would seem the exact opposite of a gambler, but in a sense he is a professional gambler, if the house is the brokerage firms. The article is a bit long but I think well worth the time.

If you think you already know how to make proposition wagers, that’s fine…keep reading anyway.

The Cardinal Rule of Proposition Gambling was best expressed over 50 years ago in the film “Guys and Dolls”. The Sky Masterson character was based on the real-life Titanic Thompson, the greatest proposition bettor ever. In the film, Sky (played by Marlon Brando) says to the young Nathan Detroit (played by Frank Sinatra):

“One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you’re going to wind up with an ear full of cider.”

Prop betting works because the person offering the wager knows he can do what he’s proposing. On rare occasions, the proposer is talking out of his ass, and you can win his bet. Very rare. If a steak is this rare, it’s still mooing. Taking a prop bet is about the biggest sucker move you can make. They’re the worst bets on the board on a craps table, in a sports book, a pool hall, a bar…pretty much anywhere someone starts a sentence with, “Hey, I’ll bet you I can…”

I love prop bets because they’re an outlet for the creative mind that doesn’t exist very much anymore. In a society full of checks-and-balances, forms signed in triplicate, and approval upon license upon regulation, you don’t have too many opportunities to take an idea and get paid for it, immediately and directly. With prop bets, if you can think of it, and can sell it, you can profit. Titantic Thompson was smart enough to dig up a highway sign that said, “Joplin - 20 miles” in the middle of the night and move it 6 miles down the road. The next day, by the strangest coincidence, Thompson was riding in a car with some other gamblers on their way to Joplin, Missouri when they passed a highway sign…and Ti said, “Man, we can’t be more than 15 miles out of town by now….” Ingenuity like that deserves to be rewarded.

Now that I’ve said this, I’ll admit there’s times I’ll take a prop bet…but we’ll save those for another blog.

NP: “House of Love”, by The House of Love. One of my favorite UK bands from the late 80s and early 90s; just a good, honest, 4-piece rock band. Some spacey guitar parts and melancholy lyrics, some out-and-out rock. These guys also called their first three records “The House of Love”…the most famous of which had a single called “I Don’t Know Why I Love You” got that a bunch of airplay on college-radio and MTV’s “120 Minutes”. This is a different record, the one with “Christine” on it.

This article tells the story of a hedge fund manager named Nassim Taleb and his defiance of the norm. In a lot of ways his principles would seem the exact opposite of a gambler, but in a sense he is a professional gambler, if the house is the brokerage firms. The article is a bit long but I think well worth the time.

I was like you, I had always heard of firefox but never took the time to install. I have now gained precious life moments back that I used to give to internet explorer waiting for it to load apps and such. You don’t have to be a power user to enjoy this.

The NBA won’t get interesting until the finals. There is no horse racing this weekend, so unless you plan on getting away for the extended weekend it looks like Pirates is being reviewed fairly well. Most critics are giving it a begrudging “it didn’t suck” which I can attest the 2nd one did. It is almost 3 hours long so you may want to get the XLarge popcorn. I’ll probably go on Sunday and will give you my opinion. If you have seen it this might be a good time to speak up.

It will be interesting the apps that should make mobile gaming easier once more usable, faster and cheaper options start to hit the market.

Edit: Looks like they changed to the 29th

Simulating everything from flying to running from gunfire on your dog. Good Stuff.

Through an exclusive arrangement the owners of PokerRoom.com and ultimately many of the rooms connected to them now have a bigger venue.

Long time onliner Jonathan Little breaks through on WPT beating the likes of Darrell Dicken and Phil Ivey. Phil unfortunately reached his 7th final table but came up empty.

As a sports junkie, I watched the recent Suns/Spurs series with great interest. I was not only captivated by a great series between two strong teams, but by the increasingly thug-like play of Bruce Bowen. He’s gone from hard-nosed to dirty to recklessly dangerous over the last couple of seasons. It’s only a matter of time before Bowen really hurts someone running under them as they go up for a rebound or putting his feet on their landing spot when they come down after a jump shot. Most notably, he was never in foul trouble the entire series, despite having dozens of collisions with Steve Nash.

I’ve also watched the controversy surrounding the “return home” clause in Roger Clemens’ contract, and Brett Favre wanting to skip Packers’ mini-camp because it’s boring and his daughter’s graduation is the week after. Veterans and team leaders, paid a fortune to play a game and be adored by millions, begging off of a simple responsibility.

These athletes are taking advantage of loopholes afforded to them. We all face loopholes in various aspects of our lives. The boss is out of the office, we’re up-to-date…do you duck out early? The drunk on your right can’t protect his cards, and you can see what he has every hand…do you actively look, or look away? A friend gets a new job at an SEC school, and has information on the football team…do you take interest because he’s your friend, or because he’ll know if the recently arrested QB has been practicing?

Most morality and ethics are fairly easy. The gray areas defined by circumstances that shouldn’t be available to you, but are, make us the person we choose to be. There’s no right or wrong here…only the kind of person you want looking back in the mirror.

NP: The Cubs/White Sox game. Two out of three ain’t bad.

Recently one of my friends and life mentors passed away. He was almost 90 years old. What really was one of the funniest things about him was that we agreed on virtually nothing. We were both bull headed and I highly doubt that my point of view changed his that often. But his certainly changed mine a few times. More often than not we agreed to disagree.

So, this is my first blog. I’ve been writing feature articles about poker for PocketFives.com for the last couple of years, and about the history of professional wrestling (another hobby of mine, one of many, as regular readers of this blog will figure out soon) for WrestlingClassics.com. But I’ve never had a blog before. I’d like to thank Beanie for inviting me into the 21st-century of Internet communication. One of these days, I’ll send a text message on my cell phone, or open up someone’s MySpace page. For now, however, I’ll just have to stick with the AlwaysBluff blog.

My ‘Net experience goes back to the early 90s, and BBS before that. I was very active in several UseNet message forums, including a couple of the rec.gambling groups…surprisingly enough, for blackjack and sports wagering, but not poker. But trivia, pool, wrestling, martial arts…lots of topics gathered my attention. I liked that you could share in a community not only on a primary topic of mutual interest, but also other tidbits about yourself. One of the ways we did it was through a “NP” tag at the end of a message.

“NP” stood for “Now Playing”…and it was where you could list whatever you were listening to at the time you made your post. If your choice was obscure or unusual, it was appreciated if you provided some background on the artist or the recording - who they are, who they sound like, where they’re from, etc. So I’ll add an “NP” tag on each blog entry, if I’m listening to music when I write (which I usually am)…and if you post a reply to a blog entry, feel free to do the same.

This should be interesting…I’m excited to be here. Let’s have some fun….

NP: “Exile in Guyville”, Liz Phair. Phair had a couple of hit singles (“Why Can’t I?”, “Extraordinary”) a few years ago after moving to L.A. and hooking up with some pop producers. This was her debut record while living in Chicago in the early 90s, and it’s just about perfect for what it’s trying to be. There are better singers and better musicians, but not of a lot of women (or men) have crafted a more complete album.

This is my post to the World Poker Tour. The PPT is for professional poker players, my contention is that instead of freerolls for pros that the money should be added to the prize pool and the entry fee should be 50k or more.

One of the coolest guys you will ever meet in or out of poker is David Williams. Here he does a video blog about his Bentley Continental.