Article:

The power of Arrogance

Comments on this Articles

• Posted by grapsfan

  WOW! Very interesting indeed....

  I've always used the analogy of a sports book when thinking about the markets. Some people are placing educated money, some are guessing. But at the end of the day, half the people pick one side, half the other, and the book (or brokerage firm) are the only people making guaranteed money because of the vig.
  
  Taleb is the guy researching not the lines or the total, but the most esoteric prop wagers offered on the board. He's making educated guesses on a player hitting 3 home runs in a game, finding the plays where the odds are really 500:1 rather than the posted 550:1. What a fascinating, unique approach to the markets.
  
  His story also sounds A LOT like online tournament poker....