Poker Blogs by Poker Pros
  • April 20th, 2008

    Knowing your hourly rate

    In poker, if you keep track, your time has a very specific value. I would argue that your time should have that same value in everything that you do, which is sort of the point of this article. What I am specifically referring to in this instance is someone saying “I will only play this if I win a satellite”. Not that the act of winning the satellite is the problem because it certainly is not, it just may or may not be in line with your hourly rate. Here are a couple of examples that are my life guide. When I am playing serious poker I am likely doing best at Limit Poker. I can win multiple bets an hour at 15-30 and 30-60 but I have certainly had moments where I have done this at 50-100. This amount of success is a result of a very clear focus and analyzing my game. For this example I am going to say my hourly rate is about $100 an hour but that really only happens when I have an amount of focus I do not normally have. At the moment poker is little more than a hobby and anything that I make is sort of “fun money”.

    Without going into a ton of details my hourly rate at work is between 200-300 dollars. Which is likely the bigger point of what this article is about because that is my true compass. Whatever I do needs to result in a net win at least higher than 200 dollars otherwise it is not smart to do. Of course I could be just doing it for fun which is something entirely different but even by that compass is poker more fun than say a movie or spending time with my kids? Sometimes it is, most times it is not.

    All of this course brings me back to “I will only play if I win a satellite”. If you know what your hourly rate for poker and life was your decision would be a lot easier. In fact, you may learn that satellites are your most profitable way to play poker.

    Paul “Beanie” Nobles

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    LABEL : Strategy, Texas Holdem

  • March 19th, 2008

    Opening up your game in Satellite play

    Poker wise I am not an expert on much but I think I can easily claim to be an expert on satellite play. The reason is simple, it is my best form of poker. I have won satellites for about 500k in big dollar events. I am a closer when it comes to satellites. What do I do different that separates me from the crowd? It’s simple, I play not only to win the seat I play to knock people out. Which is exactly contrary to what almost everyone who would teach satellite strategy would tell you to do. The key difference is that when I am trying to knock people out I am at no risk.

    Here are a couple of ideas that I use.

    1. For better or worse I am a home run hitter. I am constantly going for the knockout and I am comfortable being the lead dog. I want the chip lead.

    2. Tournaments are about chip management. If you have a 200k chip lead on your next opponent who has 90k, you might be willing to take a few more risks and in my opinion you should because there just aren’t enough people willing to step up to knock people out in satellites. Especially at the end.

    3. The end game is where things get tricky because usually people have caught on to what I am doing and frankly they are a bit pissed. It is not uncommon for one or two people to get really aggressive with me. Though I am typically at a big advantage on them because I have huge chips and they don’t, there all in plays can really neutralize my aggression. I tend to do a little more trapping at this point and try to play smaller pots, which once again I don’t think most people would recommend. But remember all of this depends on having built up a good stack. If you don’t have a good stack you would be silly to be trapping, you would be best off playing uncontested pots.

    4. Uncontested pots is like poker nirvana. For me, the fact that I have won so many satellites puts me in a comfortable position against my opponents because I know when I get there at the end I am going to close more often than not. That is big leverage to have against a guy that might have qualified for $3 who is trying not to lose.

    5. Go for the kill, if you have a hand like 44 in the big blind and an active player is raising a lot from the cut off play for the knock out. Of course if you re-raise him he might fold but that won’t get his whole stack. Winning stacks is what puts you in position to ultimately win the seat or seats.

    6. Understanding concepts of leverage in tournament poker is the difference between being a winner and a loser but it gets amplified in a satellite. When you are in a regular tournament if you come in 6th place you might still win money, in a satellite paying only 2 spots you won’t. Here is an example. Let’s say you are on the button with 2 stacks that are small in the blinds but not small enough for them to necessarily be all in, depending on your stack you might want to move all in on them as a rule. The percentages are in your favor that they will not have a hand that they can call with and in satellites people will even lay a hand like Ace Queen if it means they will be eliminated. By the time they catch on and call you hopefully you aren’t dominated and have two live cards. Using the same example where the small blind has a big stack obviously you need to tread lightly, it is a very common play for the big stack in the small blind to re-raise a button raiser because most of the time they are going to be right.

    If you had to say online players are this and live players are this I would think that my style fits in the live player category. Online players tend to want to win all uncontested pots which is possible but not always likely. So what I like to do is put people in a situation where they are uncomfortable. Post flop play is where I win most of these satellites.

    Of course all of these ideas get scrapped when you are the short stack, you won’t always have the big stack but the fact that you will be willing to see flops actually puts you in rare territory for satellite players. Here is one of the keys that you want to focus on when you see flops, nothing is a definite, you do not have to play any one hand any one particular way. If I raise with a bad hand it doesn’t necessarily mean that I will be making a continuation bet if I am called by someone out of position that checks to me. In fact, doing this occasionally sets up slow plays down the line.

    Obviously all of this sounds easy but it is far from that. Situationally I have seen almost any scenario. The situation I see the most though is panic. Which is something I rarely do and what allows me to evaluate my opponents on the fly and gives me my edge. Most people know that aggression is a big part of winning poker but that is where their game ends. To be really good at something you can’t have a formula, you have to be able to adjust on the fly.

    Beanie

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    LABEL : Strategy, Texas Holdem

  • February 28th, 2008

    Sport Betting Basics

    At the heart of it, a sports wager is as simple as any gambling proposition can be: I think one team can beat the other team.  If you happen to know someone who likes the other team to win, great; you’ve got a bet.  If not, you need someone to “book” your action.  And that’s where a sports book comes in, be it online, at a casino (only in Las Vegas within the United States) or the guy sitting in the corner of your local tavern or pool hall.  To keep the action flowing, sports books have come up with a huge variety of betting options.

    In every betting situation, the sports book attaches an extra price, where they make their profit for providing you with a service.  In normal commerce, this may be called a “processing fee”.  In betting, it’s called vigorish, “the vig”, “juice” or lots of other terms.  As long as the book can balance the action on both sides of the bet, the vig guarantees they will make money.  How the vig is applied depends on the type of bet you make.

    Types of bets
    Point Spread
    Money Line
    Totals
    Parlay
    Teaser
    If-bet
    Prop Bets
    Futures Bets

    Note that when you win a bet, you get the amount of your wager back in addition to what you won.  If you wager $110 to win $100, and win the bet, the sports book will hand you $210.  This may seem fairly obvious, but has caused confusion with sports betting novices before, so it will be mentioned now, and then assumed throughout the rest of this guide.

    After following all of the above links, you’ll know the basics of sports betting.  I haven’t said anything about how to make smart wagers and make money betting on sports…that’s up to you, and the armies of guys with 900-numbers who offer this week’s 5-Star Lock Of The Year ABSOLUTELY FREE!!  But if you do it right and find what strategies work for you, sports betting can add excitement to watching a game, provide a tremendous “beat the house” challenge, and put a little extra cash in your pocket, all at the same time.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 26th, 2008

    Point Spreads

    The simplest bet is an offer between two teams, which can take one of two forms. The first, and most commonly known, is called a point-spread bet. One team is considered, the favorite, the other the underdog. As an example from the 2007 NFL season, the New England Patriots are 16-point favorites over the Washington Redskins. If you bet on New England and they win the game by more than 16 points, you win your wager. If Washington wins the game, or loses by less than 16 points, you lose your wager. If New England wins by exactly 16 points, you tie on your wager (also called a “push”) and you simply get your money back.

    In a point-spread bet, the vig is applied upfront, usually at a 10% rate. You bet $110 to win $100. The point spread is set by the book to provide equal betting on both sides, thereby maximizing the book’s profit. If there is too much action on one team, the book can do one of two things. Most of the time, they will change the point spread, called “moving the line”, to make the other team more attractive of a bet. Or, some books will change the balance on the vig to encourage action. I have seen instances where the vig was changed from -10% to -30% on one team, and from -10% to +10% on the other, to balance out an extreme swing.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 25th, 2008

    Parlays

    A parlay is the simplest and most popular of what are called the “exotic” bets.  In a parlay, you are placing one wager to win two or more individual bets (either point spread or total bets can work in a parlay).  If I make a two-team parlay, taking New England to cover the spread and go over 47˝ points, and New England wins 45-17, then I win my parlay wager.  If either bet misses, then I lose my wager.  Sports books will allow a large number of bets to be parlayed together (at most places, up-to-12).

    In a parlay bet, the book applies the vig by paying out less than the true odds of successfully completing the wager.  As an example, the odds of successfully picking the winner of two wagers is 3:1 against (you can go W-W, W-L, L-W or L-L).  A typical parlay bet pays out 2.6:1…you wager $100 to win $260.  This provides a 13.3% vig to the house.  The more wagers are added in a parlay, the bigger of a sucker bet the parlay becomes.  As an example, here are three different sets of parlay odds.  Book #1 is an online book notorious for offering “bad” odds, Book #2 is known for “good” odds, and a third from a set of “special value” odds:

    Book #1 (Bad) Book #2 (Good) Book “Special”
    Parlay Size Actual Odds Offered Odds Vig % Offered Odds Vig % Offered Odds Vig %
    2-Bet 3:1 2.6:1 13.3% 2.6:1 13.3% 2.8:1 6.7%
    3-Bet 7:1 6:1 14.3% 6:1 14.3% 6.4:1 8.6%
    4-Bet 15:1 12:1 20% 12:1 20% 13.5:1 10%
    5-Bet 31:1 25:1 19.3% 25:1 19.3% 27:1 12.9%
    6-Bet 63:1 35:1 44.4% 40:1 36.5% 54:1 14.3%
    7-Bet 127:1 75:1 40.9% 75:1 40.9% 107:1 15.7%
    8-Bet 255:1 100:1 60.8% 150:1 41.2% 210:1 17.6%
    9-Bet 511:1 150:1 70.6% 300:1 41.3% 411:1 19.6%
    10-Bet 1023:1 300:1 70.6% 700:1 31.6% 804:1 21.4%
    11-Bet 2047:1 450:1 78.0% 1100:1 46.3% 1570:1 23.3%
    12-Bet 4195:1 600:1 85.7% 1800:1 57.1% 3066:1 26.9%

    Note that with a couple of exceptions in the “special” column, no parlay offers you less than the 10% vig you are paying on a standard wager.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 25th, 2008

    Money Lines

    The other way a bet between two opposing sides can be made is called a money line. The money line is usually offered between individual opponents (two fighters in a boxing match, for example), but is also provided in low-scoring sports like baseball, soccer or hockey, or in games where the point spread is fairly close. If the point spread on an NFL game is “Chicago -4 ˝ over Detroit”, the money line might be offered as “Chicago -240 Detroit +200”. This means that a bettor would have to wager $240 on Chicago to win $100 back, whereas a $100 wager on Detroit would return $200. Point spreads are not involved in this kind of bet; it’s solely a matter of who wins the contest.

    In a money line bet, the vig is applied as the gap between the two offerings. In this case, Detroit pays out as a 2:1 underdog…but Chicago is set as a 2.4:1 favorite. The 10% on either side of the middle (in reality, the book is saying that Chicago is a 2.2:1 favorite) produces the same vig as a point spread bet does.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 23rd, 2008

    Totals

    A favorite of many gamblers is a total bet, also known as an over/under. A sports book places a line as to the total number of points to be scored between the two teams, and you wager whether or not the point sum will be over or under the line. It does not matter which team wins the game. In the aforementioned New England v. Washington game, if I wager over the total line of 47˝, and New England wins the game 31-17, then I win (31 + 17 = 48). If the game ends in a 20-20 tie, I lose my wager.

    Many sports bettors like totals because the larger point value lessens the variance of one individual play within a game. Most football lines are +/- 6 points, so a fluke like a punt or fumble return for a touchdown can have a huge impact. Same with basketball, where most lines are +/- 10 points, and the final spread can greatly depend on the performance of a single hot-or-cold player. Such impact is lessened significantly when the two scores are combined together into one total line.

    The vig on a total bet is applied the same way as the point spread: an upfront fee of (usually) 10%.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 20th, 2008

    Teaser

    A teaser is a special form of a parlay, where you are making one bet on multiple outcomes.  In this case, the house “teases” you with the option of adding points to your spreads in exchange for lower parlay odds.  Most books will allow you to tease a football game 6, 6˝ or 7 points (basketball is usually 4, 4 ˝ or 5 points).  Instead of taking Detroit as a 4˝ point underdog against Chicago, you can tease them to get 10˝, 11 or 11˝ points.  At the “Good” sports book, you can the following teaser payout odds:

    Teaser Size 6 points 6.5 points 7 points
    2-Team 10:11 10:12 10:13
    3-Team 1.8:1 1.6:1 1.4:1
    4-Team 3:1 2.5:1 2:1
    5-Team 4.5:1 4:1 3.5:1
    6-Team 6:1 5.5:1 5:1
    7-Team 10:1 9:1 8:1
    8-Team 15:1 12:1 10:1
    9-Team 20:1 15:1 12:1
    10-Team 25:1 10:1 15:1
    11-Team 35:1 25:1 20:1
    12-Team 50:1 35:1 25:1
    13-Team 75:1 50:1 35:1
    14-Team 100:1 75:1 50:1
    15-Team 150:1 100:1 75:1

    Some sports books will also offer straight-up teasers, where they allow the player to add even more points, but drop the payouts to even money.  For example, a 2-team football teaser will usually allow the bettor to adjust each line in the wager by 7 points.  A 3-team football bet can usually be teased 10 or 10.5 points.  Straight teasers are usually limited to 5 or 6 wagers.

    As with parlays, the house takes a vig by offering lower odds than is mathematically the case.  It is not as easy to calculate a teaser vig as it is a parlay vig, but as with all exotic bets, the vig is almost always greater than the 10% offered in a straight line bet.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 19th, 2008

    If Bets

    An “if-bet” is a multi-bet wager where you do not have to win every bet to get some payout back.   The if-bet works like this:

    You place one bet down on multiple teams, in preferential order.  Let’s say you like the Patriots go over 47˝, and you like the Bears to cover.  You bet $110 to win $100 in your if-bet.  “If” (hence the phrase, the “if-bet”) the Patriots win 52-7, they’ve gone over the total, and you win the first wager.  You get your $100 win back, and the original $110 goes into your bet on the Bears.  You can do an if-bet with up-to-7 games.  If at any time, your chain of bets breaks, everything else is a loss.  The table below, showing four possible wagers from a week in the NFL, demonstrates some of the possible outcomes of your if-bet (each wager is for $110 to win $100):

    Patriots Bears Rams Giants TOTAL
    Scenario #1 WIN WIN WIN WIN
    Result +$100 +$100 +$100 +$100 +$400
    Scenario #2 WIN WIN WIN LOSE
    Result +$100 +$100 +$100 -$110 +$190
    Scenario #3 WIN WIN LOSE No Bet
    Result +$100 +$100 -$110 +$90
    Scenario #4 WIN LOSE No Bet No Bet
    Result +$100 -$110 -$10
    Scenario #5 LOSE No Bet No Bet No Bet
    Result -$110 -$110

    An if-bet is a reasonable way to play multiple games in a week and still have some semblance of safety in your gambling bankroll.  You can never lose more than your initial $100+10 (whereas if you put $100+10 on each of the four games, you could lose all four wagers and be down up to $440).  On the other hand, you are missing the opportunity to win on the wagers that are “No Bets” if the if-bet chain gets broken.  Look at Scenario #5…if you would have won your bets on the Bears, Rams and Giants, you’d be up $190.  But because the Patriots game was the first in your if-bet chain, you never had that opportunity.

    There are two types of if-bets: “if-win” and “if-action”.  In an “if-win” bet, you have to win the bet to continue the chain to the next bet.  In an “if-action” bet, the chain continues if your wager is a push, as well as a win.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy, Sports Betting

  • February 18th, 2008

    Prop Bets

    A proposition, or “prop” bet, is one of the most popular wagers in the sports book. The book offers odds on the likelihood of a specific event happening in a game, and you can wager against the odds that the event will occur. The best example of a prop bet takes place during the Super Bowl. Books offer odds on every imaginable situation: which team will score first, which player will score first, which team will have more turnovers, which team will win the coin flip (a hint: if you’re betting on a coin flip, giving 10% vig…you should probably check yourself into Gambler’s Anonymous). Some books even offer creative cross-sport options: will the Colts score more points in their NFL game than LeBron James does when the Cavaliers play an NBA game earlier that day?

    Some online sports books have taken the prop bet concept a step further and offering live in-game wagering. Will the next play in the Bears/Lions game be a pass or a run? 25:1 odds against this punt coming up being blocked? Will Cedric Benson be stopped for a loss the next time he carries the ball? It’s not a new idea: Frank Rosenthal (the real-life guy behind the Robert DeNiro character in “Casino”) talks about guys offering this kind of action in the bleachers at Wrigley Field when he was a kid in the 1950s. But with advances in technology, anyone can do this while sitting at home, watching the game on TV and wagering online.

    As with any sports book action, the book takes their vig on prop bets by offering slightly worse odds than is mathematically true. In some cases, they know that the Bears’ special teams block 3% of opponent’s punts, so they’ll offer 25:1 rather than 32:1. In others, they just short the total payout…one of the most popular Super Bowl Wager is “which player will score first?” A sports book will list the 10 or 12 most likely players to score in the game, and then offer a “field” bet to allow you to say it won’t be one of those guys, but someone else. If you add up all of the individual odds, the “field” bet won’t make up the difference. The total will come up to somewhere around 90%.

    Grapsfan

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    LABEL : Gambling Strategy