A proposition, or “prop” bet, is one of the most popular wagers in the sports book. The book offers odds on the likelihood of a specific event happening in a game, and you can wager against the odds that the event will occur. The best example of a prop bet takes place during the Super Bowl. Books offer odds on every imaginable situation: which team will score first, which player will score first, which team will have more turnovers, which team will win the coin flip (a hint: if you’re betting on a coin flip, giving 10% vig…you should probably check yourself into Gambler’s Anonymous). Some books even offer creative cross-sport options: will the Colts score more points in their NFL game than LeBron James does when the Cavaliers play an NBA game earlier that day?

Some online sports books have taken the prop bet concept a step further and offering live in-game wagering. Will the next play in the Bears/Lions game be a pass or a run? 25:1 odds against this punt coming up being blocked? Will Cedric Benson be stopped for a loss the next time he carries the ball? It’s not a new idea: Frank Rosenthal (the real-life guy behind the Robert DeNiro character in “Casino”) talks about guys offering this kind of action in the bleachers at Wrigley Field when he was a kid in the 1950s. But with advances in technology, anyone can do this while sitting at home, watching the game on TV and wagering online.

As with any sports book action, the book takes their vig on prop bets by offering slightly worse odds than is mathematically true. In some cases, they know that the Bears’ special teams block 3% of opponent’s punts, so they’ll offer 25:1 rather than 32:1. In others, they just short the total payout…one of the most popular Super Bowl Wager is “which player will score first?” A sports book will list the 10 or 12 most likely players to score in the game, and then offer a “field” bet to allow you to say it won’t be one of those guys, but someone else. If you add up all of the individual odds, the “field” bet won’t make up the difference. The total will come up to somewhere around 90%.

Grapsfan

I am obsessed with failure, ironically I want to write a motivational book on the topic, the idea being simple that failure is a constant and success is rare. Most motivational books do not prepare you for failure, the theme is typically similar in most of them, if failure is mentioned just knock the dirt off and success, success, success will come a knockin at your door. Which everyone knows is a crock, mostly when you read those type of books (I read a lot of them) you are looking for a nugget or two. One thing I can not figure out is if all people respond to a fear of failure? Certainly fear of failure can be a huge motivator. If you are drowning fear of failure is devastating so when death is the lever it is pretty obvious people will get motivated to learn to swim or stay out of the water.

If you have not figured it out yet poker has a lot of failure attached to it, especially as you move up in stakes. I always love it when people say “I think my game is suited for higher limits” and what exactly would you be basing that on? Success at anything can happen once but continued success at anything requires persistence, intelligence and training. Poker is no different, if you are staying status quo you are failing, even if you are winning. That can also be the tough part, because you are not totally failing it occasionally gives you the feeling that you are succeeding, it is also hard to judge, if you judged success by making a profit then a lot of people are successful but I think I could make a strong argument they are failing.

So I would define failure in poker as not seeking better and more informed answers to how you should play the game. That is why fear of failure is not a powerful motivator when it comes to poker unless you play poker exclusively and sometimes at that point fear of failure can actually harm your game. Simply put making a profit or even losing are not in and of themselves a determinant whether you are succeeding or failing.

Now here is the tough part about what I am saying, books will only take you so far and training schools can maybe get you a bit further but poker is about trial and error. Once I went to a seminar, the cost was $10,000 for four days worth of training, at that time it seemed ridiculous but to this day I have not gone to a seminar that was more valuable in my life than that one (the organizer was a gentlemen by the name of Todd Duncan and the topic was mortgages). Poker does not really have that, and really neither did mortgages, Todd’s seminar got me to a certain point but knocking down the hard doors I had to figure out by myself. In fact, I do not think I reached my potential with mortgages though by most people’s standards I was a big success. By the time I really was starting to catch a good groove the market changed.

That is what is happening in poker right now, so that is why I am writing this article. Games are tougher, redefining success is something smart people do when markets go south. Do not fret though, markets have a way of changing back into your favor at some future point and at that point you will be very happy that you continued training and avoided failing by my definition.

The key points of this article are:

1. To be a success at something you have to continue to try and keep learning.

2. Winning and Losing is not the best way to determine whether or not you are failing. In poker everyone’s goals are different.

3. Invest in training and read source material but at some point you are on your own and it will be those moments where you will find your best attributes, assuming of course you are willing to fail and make mistakes along the way. If Phil Ivey would sell his inner most secrets you could not afford the cost.

4. Your biggest investment you will ever make will be in experience.

Paul “Beanie” Nobles

A future bet is a type of proposition bet not for one particular game, but usually for a series or a season’s worth of action. “Who will win the NBA championship?” or “Odds of making the AFC Championship Game” are typical futures bets. Each team in the league are given odds of the event happening.

Professional sports bettors rarely make substantial futures bets because the money wagered is out-of-play until the future event occurs. If you put money down at the start of a NBA season for the Phoenix Suns to win the title, you may not know the outcome of your bet for 8 months.

Similar to a “field” prop bet, the book takes their vig by shorting the total odds breakdown. Books also play on the heartstrings of teams with loyal fans by offering specifically bad odds on those teams. The best example are the legions of Cubs fans who flock from the Midwest to Las Vegas every winter, to take in the warmer weather and swing down past Mesa, Arizona for a few spring training games. Almost every one of them will make a heartfelt wager for the Cubs to win the World Series. To keep their action balanced and minimize the impact to their bottom line if the Cubs do win, the odds offered on the Cubs are usually worse than for any other baseball team. In reality, the book will have bigger problems than money if the Cubs do win the World Series…the “hell freezing over” and “plagues of locusts” will probably make everyone forget about the bottom dollar.

Grapsfan

As an entrepreneur I spend a lot of time reading business venture blogs.  I liked the emphasis on failure in this one because it is my opinion that failure is what I have learned the most from.

http://www.unionsquareventures.com/2007/11/why_early_stage.html

One of the first lessons I learned in poker is that catching up is not only profitable it is the difference between being a winner and a loser. Back in those days I was playing limit poker and hands like Ace King were useless unless the flop came Jack Queen Ten. Even then you had to sweat the board pairing, typically 9 people saw the flop (out of 11, yes I am well aware this is a silly game) and everyone hit a little bit of something. The name of the game was playing hands that caught up easily like pairs. Over time the losers couldn’t chase any longer, they had just lost too much doing it so the game soon went to only 5 people seeing the flop. Ironically, that was when I made my most profit. With too many people playing almost no one is doing anything too terribly wrong so your edge against the collective group is not that significant.

These days No Limit is the game and the punishment for playing badly is swift. Even in a loose $5-$10 game it would be rare to see 5-7 people calling $100 raise. So the field size gets smaller assuming you make decent raises and don’t price people in. Raising to $40 with 5 people in screams of a hand like Sevens where if you hit your set you have 5 other people on board and can stack at least one of them with top pair. So let me introduce you to a few concepts:

First Bluff: As you see more flops the texture of flops becomes easier to read and understand. It is important to bluff at favorable flop textures to set up some of the plays I will be mentioning later. In the case of playing against an overly aggressive opponent that always makes continuation bets you might want to check raise them with air occasionally just to let them know that you are onto their plan and that won’t fly while you are at the table.

Set Mining: This is the hobby of all nits everywhere. They just wait for pairs to hit the flop and try to get all the money in and unfortunately most people aren’t paying attention and don’t realize they haven’t played a hand in two hours. That is one of the advantages of online, between surfing for porn and sweating the $20 bet they have on Youngstown State people don’t pay attention so tight players get away with more online. This is why First Bluff is so powerful because when you hit your set you will build a monster pot by just leading out, if you bluff enough eventually people start calling you down with weaker hands. That is when you show them the nuts.

Playing suited connectors in position: You have at least 2 more options playing suited connectors in position than you do out of position. Ideally you would like to hit your hand occasionally and not bluff all the time but suited connectors give you the added option of semibluffing in position with information. Playing suited connectors early you are really only guessing.

Hands like Ace King and Ace Queen are great and likely represent the majority of playable hands but it is rare that someone will “stack off” in a decent game with a hand like Ace Jack. Sets are the best “catch up” hands. In the case of suited connectors it is likely better to hit your off card rather than the card that makes you. As an example, you will likely make more from your opponents by hitting the card that gives you trips (assuming you have a pair and a flush draw) than you will if you hit your flush. So bang the six harder. You have to have a feeling of how the table perceives you and use that image against them. Otherwise, the image you have established hasn’t allowed you to take advantage of catching up.

Paul “Beanie” Nobles

Brandon posted this on 2+2 and it generated a lot of discussion. The post compares online poker players to live poker players and why it is difficult to compare poker to really anything else.

Brandon Adams

It’s important to know how the other players at the table perceive you. You as a poker player must know what they think of you. I know, when I sit down at a poker table, what most everyone thinks about my style of play. I tend to play a bit more on the aggressive side; however I can also be a squeezer. If I am playing with someone I’ve never played with before I know they think of me as an aggressive maniac. When I sit down with professionals I have played with in the past I know they know I can squeeze.

There are many ways to change your image. It all depends on the nature of the game and the people in it as well. When you first go into a game not knowing anybody the best thing to do is play a couple of hands you would never play. And play them terribly, but make it a point to somehow show the hands without making it obvious that you are trying to show. That alone will give you a great image; that of an idiot, which is EXACTLY what you want. It’s amazing to me poker players seek validation more than anybody. Why in the world do you want your peers (the same guys you PLAY against) to think of you as a good player?!? You want them to think of you as a donk. When you sit down and make a couple of dumb plays and play a few hands you should not be playing you are set for the rest of your session. It will cost you a little bit in equity playing these bad hands but you make up for it in payoff vig throughout your session. The last thing you want is to be known as an FBS (a full blown squeezer). You want them to think of you as a gambling knucklehead. Good luck!!

Antonio Esfandiari

There is a lot of poker on television, really the only interesting hands are where someone makes a very bad play or something improbable happens. AA beating a flush draw doesn’t always make it past the cutting room floor. Therefore, the poker that you watch on television isn’t the most optimal way to play. So let me give you some ideas on what it really takes.

1. Poker is about fundamentals. Playing hands with position and changing with the style of game. A good example of this is a hand like 5s4s that is much more valuable as a No Limit hand rather than a Limit Poker hand. Poker Theory by David Slansky was one of the first books I ever read and the concepts still stick with me today. You have to have a base of understanding before you get creative.

2. Getting too creative is not profitable long term. Long term the money is made by making fewer mistakes (in terms of dollars) than your opponents. A good example is the above hand playing no limit, against one opponent from early position even if you hit a favorable flop not only will it cost you a great deal of money but you don’t have the ability to get much information cheaply. In no limit the practice of set mining is a big deal because it is rare that if you flop a set you will be up against a hand that beats you and you will often take the stack from hands like AA and KK.

3. Playing within a proper bankroll has been covered often and so has playing in games where you have little edge. What isn’t covered often is playing in games with a high rake. In a lot of ways it is a double edged sword because if players are savvy about how much the house takes the game can become a shark tank (also known as a nit festival). On the other hand a game with a $10 rake per hand with all fish may be profitable based on your contribution towards the rake. There really isn’t a ton of data on this subject but it is something you want to be aware of, playing in games with fish is important but ignoring the house edge is foolish.

4. Maintaining your mental health edge is important. I personally believe that poker is a young mans game because it is easier to maintain your focus without regards to the abuse you do to your body and mind. As you get older however you have to preserve what mental edge you have by reducing the time you play and maintaining a decent diet. Playing more when you are winning and less when you are losing is easier said than done but that is what it takes to be a professional.

This was my first article related to playing poker seriously. In future articles I will try and be a bit more specific. This was meant to be an overview covering some surface issues.

Paul “Beanie” Nobles